Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor
1Andalusian Institute of Earth System Research, University of Cordoba. Campus de Rabanales, Edif. Leonardo da Vinci, 14071, Córdoba, Spain
2Andalusian Institute of Earth System Research, University of Granada. Edif. CEAMA, Avda. del Mediterráneo s/n, 18006, Granada, Spain
Risk, uncertainty, call-effect, water resource planning
Abstract. Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.
Polo, M. J., Aguilar, C., Millares, A., Herrero, J., Gómez-Beas, R., Contreras, E., and Losada, M. A.: Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor, Proc. IAHS, 364, 285-291, doi:10.5194/piahs-364-285-2014, 2014.