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Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences An open-access publication for refereed proceedings in hydrology
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Volume 371
Proc. IAHS, 371, 59–64, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-59-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Proc. IAHS, 371, 59–64, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-59-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  12 Jun 2015

12 Jun 2015

Ability of a land surface model to predict climate induced changes in northern Russian river runoff during the 21st century

O. N. Nasonova1, Y. M. Gusev1, E. M. Volodin2, and E. E. Kovalev1 O. N. Nasonova et al.
  • 1Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
  • 2Institute of Numerical Mathematic, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Abstract. The objective of the present study is application of the land surface model SWAP to project climate change impact on northern Russian river runoff up to 2100 using meteorological projections from the atmosphere–ocean global climate model INMCM4.0. The study was performed for the Northern Dvina River and the Kolyma River characterized by different climatic conditions. The ability of both models to reproduce the observed river runoff was investigated. To apply SWAP for hydrological projections, the robustness of the model was evaluated. The river runoff projections up to 2100 were calculated for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 prepared for the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For each scenario, several runoff projections were obtained using different models (INMCM4.0 and SWAP) and different post-processing techniques for correcting biases in meteorological forcing data. Differences among the runoff projections obtained for the same emission scenario and the same period illustrate uncertainties resulted from application of different models and bias-correcting techniques.

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The land surface model SWAP was found to be robust and can be applied for climate change studies. The river runoff projections up to 2100 were calculated for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. Scatter among SWAP’s projections due to application of different post-processing techniques for correcting biases in meteorological forcing data did not exceed 8%, while differences between changes in runoff projected by two models are much larger.
The land surface model SWAP was found to be robust and can be applied for climate change...
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