Articles | Volume 373
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-189-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-189-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
12 May 2016
Long term prediction of flood occurrence
Fluvial dynamics and hydrology research group, Andalusian Institute of
Earth System Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
Alberto Montanari
Department DICAM, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
María José Polo
Fluvial dynamics and hydrology research group, Andalusian Institute
of Earth System Research, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
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The Global Surface Water Explorer (GSWE) was combined with bathymetric and historical meteorological data to quantify water balance during the period 1984–2020 in the Primera de Palos freshwater lagoon (Southwest Spain). The results showed that the natural hydrological regime of the lagoon was modified from 1995 by water inputs from irrigation returns. Thanks to a water balance approach, these irrigation returns were quantified as the closure term of the water balance.
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This work presents the reconstruction of 19 years of daily, monthly, and annual global radiation maps in Sierra Nevada (Spain) derived using daily historical records from weather stations in the area and a modeling scheme that captures the topographic effects that constitute the main sources of the spatial and temporal variability of solar radiation. The generated datasets are valuable in different fields, such as hydrology, ecology, or energy production systems downstream.
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
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We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
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This work investigates the effect of different parameterizations to account for water stress on GPP estimates and their agreement with observations. GPP is estimated with a LUE-model in the footprint of the EC tower using several approaches.
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Assuming that floods are driven by both short- (meteorological forcing) and long-term perturbations (higher-than-usual moisture), we propose a technique for updating a season in advance the flood frequency distribution. Its application in the Po and Danube rivers helped to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of floods and thus constitutes a promising tool for real-time management of flood risk mitigation. This study is the result of the stay of the first author at the University of Bologna.
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Proc. IAHS, 373, 45–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-45-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-45-2016, 2016
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Regulation by reservoirs affects both the freshwater regime and the sediment delivery downstream. Spain is one the countries with more water storage capacity by reservoirs in the world. The spatial redistribution of the seasonal and annual water storage in reservoirs mainly for irrigation and urban supply has resulted in significant environmental impacts downstream. This work shows these effects in the Guadalquivir and the Ebro River basins, two of the largest regulated areas in Spain.
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Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
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Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually “impossible”, yet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2847–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023, 2023
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The present study refers to the region of Bologna, where the availability of a 209-year-long daily rainfall series allows us to make a unique assessment of global climate models' reliability and their predicted changes in rainfall and multiyear droughts. Our results suggest carefully considering the impact of uncertainty when designing climate change adaptation policies for droughts. Rigorous use and comprehensive interpretation of the available information are needed to avoid mismanagement.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
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Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Cristina Aguilar, Rafael Pimentel, and María J. Polo
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This work presents the reconstruction of 19 years of daily, monthly, and annual global radiation maps in Sierra Nevada (Spain) derived using daily historical records from weather stations in the area and a modeling scheme that captures the topographic effects that constitute the main sources of the spatial and temporal variability of solar radiation. The generated datasets are valuable in different fields, such as hydrology, ecology, or energy production systems downstream.
Serena Ceola, Francesco Laio, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3933–3944, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3933-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3933-2019, 2019
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A simple and effective index for the quantitative estimation of the evolution of human pressure on rivers at global scale is proposed. This index, based on nightlights and river discharge data, shows a significant increase from 1992 to 2013 worldwide. The most notable changes are found in river basins across Africa and Asia, where human pressure on rivers is growing markedly. This index identifies priority areas that can be targeted for the implementation of mitigation strategies and plans.
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This work presents the Guadalfeo Monitoring Network in the Sierra Nevada (Spain), a snow monitoring network in the Guadalfeo Experimental Catchment, a semiarid area in southern Europe representative of snowpacks with highly variable dynamics on both annual and seasonal scales and significant topographic gradients. The network includes weather stations and time-lapse cameras to capture the variability of the ablation phases on different spatial scales.
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We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
Pedro J. Gómez-Giráldez, Elisabet Carpintero, Mario Ramos, Cristina Aguilar, and María P. González-Dugo
Proc. IAHS, 380, 37–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-37-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-37-2018, 2018
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This work investigates the effect of different parameterizations to account for water stress on GPP estimates and their agreement with observations. GPP is estimated with a LUE-model in the footprint of the EC tower using several approaches.
The preliminary results obtained during two hydrological years (2015/2016 and 2016/2017) are compared, focusing on specific wet and dry periods.
Rafael Pimentel, Carlo Marín, Ludovica De Gregorio, Mattia Callegari, María J. Pérez-Palazón, Claudia Notarnicola, and María J. Polo
Proc. IAHS, 380, 67–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-67-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-67-2018, 2018
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In Mediterranean regions, the spatiotemporal evolution of the snow cover can experiment quick changes and high frequency sensors are required to adequately monitor such shifts. This work presents a methodological approach to validate the improved MODIS daily snow cover maps, in a Sierra Nevada (southern Spain), from a reference data set obtained by Landsat TM data. The results show a significantly high correlation between the two snow map products at differents spatial scale.
María J. Polo, Maria P. González-Dugo, and Christopher Neale
Proc. IAHS, 380, 1–2, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-1-2018, 2018
Alessio Pugliese, Simone Persiano, Stefano Bagli, Paolo Mazzoli, Juraj Parajka, Berit Arheimer, René Capell, Alberto Montanari, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4633–4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, 2018
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This research work focuses on the development of an innovative method for enhancing the predictive capability of macro-scale rainfall–runoff models by means of a geostatistical apporach. In our method, one can get enhanced streamflow simulations without any further model calibration. Indeed, this method is neither computational nor data-intensive and is implemented only using observed streamflow data and a GIS vector layer with catchment boundaries. Assessments are performed in the Tyrol region.
Cristina Aguilar, Alberto Montanari, and María-José Polo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3687–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3687-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3687-2017, 2017
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Assuming that floods are driven by both short- (meteorological forcing) and long-term perturbations (higher-than-usual moisture), we propose a technique for updating a season in advance the flood frequency distribution. Its application in the Po and Danube rivers helped to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of floods and thus constitutes a promising tool for real-time management of flood risk mitigation. This study is the result of the stay of the first author at the University of Bologna.
Amin Elshorbagy, Raja Bharath, Anchit Lakhanpal, Serena Ceola, Alberto Montanari, and Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2219–2232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2219-2017, 2017
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Flood mapping is one of Canada's major national interests. This work presents a simple and effective method for large-scale flood hazard and risk mapping, applied in this study to Canada. Readily available data, such as remote sensing night-light data, topography, and stream network were used to create the maps.
Rafael Pimentel, Javier Herrero, and María José Polo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 805–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-805-2017, 2017
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This study analyses the subgrid variability of the snow distribution in a Mediterranean region and formulates a parametric approach that includes these scale effects in the physical modelling of snow by means of accumulation–depletion curves associated with snow evolution patterns, by means of terrestrial photography. The results confirm that the use of these on a cell scale provides a solid foundation for the extension of point snow models to larger areas.
Javier Herrero and María José Polo
The Cryosphere, 10, 2981–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2981-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2981-2016, 2016
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We present 7 years of field work and modelling to assess the importance of the loss of water from the snow by means of evaposublimation in the Mediterranean mountains of Sierra Nevada. The actual evaposublimation rates were detected through detailed measurement of the mass fluxes from the snow. These data have led to some improvements in the modelling of the snow dynamics in this kind of mountainous semiarid regions. Evaposublimation is estimated to range 24–33% of total annual snowfall.
Serena Ceola, Alberto Montanari, Juraj Parajka, Alberto Viglione, Günter Blöschl, and Francesco Laio
Proc. IAHS, 373, 131–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-131-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-131-2016, 2016
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This paper analyses the evolution in space and time of human presence in terms of settlements and associated economic activities along the Eastern Alpine river network in Austria and Italy by using high-resolution satellite images. To this aim, nocturnal artificial luminosity images and the geographical location of streams and rivers are employed. Our results reveal a significant increase of nighttime lights, and thus of human presence.
María J. Polo, Albert Rovira, Darío García-Contreras, Eva Contreras, Agustín Millares, Cristina Aguilar, and Miguel A. Losada
Proc. IAHS, 373, 45–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-45-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-45-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Regulation by reservoirs affects both the freshwater regime and the sediment delivery downstream. Spain is one the countries with more water storage capacity by reservoirs in the world. The spatial redistribution of the seasonal and annual water storage in reservoirs mainly for irrigation and urban supply has resulted in significant environmental impacts downstream. This work shows these effects in the Guadalquivir and the Ebro River basins, two of the largest regulated areas in Spain.
Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Christophe Cudennec, Denis Hughes, Alberto Montanari, Insa Neuweiler, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1081–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1081-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1081-2016, 2016
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
M. Egüen, M. J. Polo, Z. Gulliver, E. Contreras, C. Aguilar, and M. A. Losada
Proc. IAHS, 370, 51–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-51-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-51-2015, 2015
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This work shows the change on flood risk in the coastal areas of three hydrographic basins in South Spain during the reservoir expansion period. The results differentiate the impact of the regulation level on both the cumulative distribution functions of the fluvial discharge near the river mouth, and the associated damage related to the enhanced soil occupation during this period.
M. J. Pérez-Palazón, R. Pimentel, J. Herrero, C. Aguilar, J. M. Perales, and M. J. Polo
Proc. IAHS, 369, 157–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-157-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-157-2015, 2015
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Sierra Nevada National Park (South Spain) constitute a key monitoring point for climate variability and its impacts. This work presents the local trend analysis of weather variables at this area together with additional snow-related variables. The joint analysis of weather and snow variables showed a decrease trend in the extent and persistence of the snow covered area over the area. The precipitation regime seems to be the most relevant driver on the snow regime forcing in Mediterranean areas.
S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
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We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
I. Andrés-Doménech, R. García-Bartual, A. Montanari, and J. B. Marco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 379–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-379-2015, 2015
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Does climate variability necessarily imply hydrological variability? This paper analyses the catchment filtering role by analytically deriving the annual maximum peak flow frequency distribution based on realistic hypotheses about the rainfall process and the rainfall-runoff transformation. Depending on changes in the annual number of rainfall events, the catchment filtering role is particularly significant. Results also largely depend on the return period considered.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
G. Blöschl, A. Bárdossy, D. Koutsoyiannis, Z. W. Kundzewicz, I. Littlewood, A. Montanari, and H. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2433–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2433-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2433-2014, 2014
H. V. Gupta, C. Perrin, G. Blöschl, A. Montanari, R. Kumar, M. Clark, and V. Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, 2014
S. E. Thompson, M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, 2013
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, 2012
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