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Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences An open-access publication for refereed proceedings in hydrology

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Proc. IAHS, 376, 51-55, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-376-51-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
 
01 Feb 2018
Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment
Xiao-Jun Wang1,2,3, Jian-Yun Zhang1,2, Shamsuddin Shahid4, Yu-Xuan Xie5, and Xu Zhang1,2 1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, 210029 Nanjing, China
2Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, 210029 Nanjing, China
3State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China
4Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
5Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission, 300170 Tianjin, China
Abstract. A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22  ×  108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25  ×  108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

Citation: Wang, X.-J., Zhang, J.-Y., Shahid, S., Xie, Y.-X., and Zhang, X.: Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment, Proc. IAHS, 376, 51-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-376-51-2018, 2018.
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A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand.
A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river...
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