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Volume 376
Proc. IAHS, 376, 97-104, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-376-97-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Proc. IAHS, 376, 97-104, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-376-97-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  01 Feb 2018

01 Feb 2018

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

Xiaoli Yang1,2, Weifei Zheng1,2, Liliang Ren1,2, Mengru Zhang1,2, Yuqian Wang1,2, Yi Liu1,2, Fei Yuan1,2, and Shanhu Jiang1,2 Xiaoli Yang et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
  • 2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

Abstract. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10% during the period of 2021–2050, compared to the base period of 1961–1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

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