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Volume 379
Proc. IAHS, 379, 139-144, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Proc. IAHS, 379, 139-144, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Pre-conference publication 05 Jun 2018

Pre-conference publication | 05 Jun 2018

Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

Olga N. Nasonova, Yeugeniy M. Gusev, Evgeny E. Kovalev, and Georgy V. Ayzel Olga N. Nasonova et al.
  • Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation

Abstract. Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water – Atmosphere – Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006–2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

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Projections of climate induced changes in streamflow of 11 large-scale rivers located in five continents were modeled up to 2100 using meteorological projections simulated by five global circulation models (GCMs) for four climatic scenarios. Contribution of different sources of uncertainties into a total uncertainty of river runoff projections was analyzed. It was found that contribution of GCMs into the total uncertainty is, on the average, nearly twice larger than that of climatic scenarios.
Projections of climate induced changes in streamflow of 11 large-scale rivers located in five...
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