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Proc. IAHS, 379, 393-402, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-393-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Pre-conference publication
05 Jun 2018
Evaluation of water productivity under climate change in irrigated areas of the arid Northwest China using an assemble statistical downscaling method and an agro-hydrological model
Liu Liu1,2, Zezhong Guo1,2, and Guanhua Huang1,2 1College of Water Resources & Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
2Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
Abstract. The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin, located in the arid region of Northwest China with a serious water shortage. Evaluation of water productivity will provide scientific implications for agricultural water-saving in irrigated areas of the arid region under climate change. Based on observed meteorological data, 23 GCMs outputs and the ERA-40 reanalysis data, an assemble statistical downscaling model was developed to generate climate change scenarios under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 respectively, which were then used to drive the SWAP-EPIC model to simulate crop growth in the irrigated areas of the middle HRB for the future period from 2018 to 2047. Crop yield showed an increasing trend, while crop water consumption decreased gradually in Gaotai and Ganzhou irrigated areas. The water productivity in future 30 years showed an increasing trend in both Gaotai and Ganzhou areas, with the most significant increase under RCP4.5 scenario, which were both larger than 2 kg m−3. Compared with that of the period from 2012 to 2015, the water productivity during 2018–2047 under three RCP scenarios increased by 9.2, 14.3 and 11.8 % in the Gaotai area, and 15.4, 21.6, 19.9 % in the Ganzhou area, respectively.
Citation: Liu, L., Guo, Z., and Huang, G.: Evaluation of water productivity under climate change in irrigated areas of the arid Northwest China using an assemble statistical downscaling method and an agro-hydrological model, Proc. IAHS, 379, 393-402, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-393-2018, 2018.
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