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Proc. IAHS, 379, 455-462, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-455-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Pre-conference publication
05 Jun 2018
Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe
Luis Garrote1, Ana Iglesias2, and Alfredo Granados1 1Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
2Department of Agricultural Economics, Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Abstract. A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.
Citation: Garrote, L., Iglesias, A., and Granados, A.: Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe, Proc. IAHS, 379, 455-462, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-455-2018, 2018.
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We present a methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The water scarcity risk index is a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios.
We present a methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in...
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