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Volume 379
Proc. IAHS, 379, 89-104, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-89-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Proc. IAHS, 379, 89-104, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-89-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Pre-conference publication 05 Jun 2018

Pre-conference publication | 05 Jun 2018

Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change

Yanrong Li1 and Jinxia Wang2 Yanrong Li and Jinxia Wang
  • 1Beijing Research Institute of Commercial Machinery, All China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, Beijing, 100070, China
  • 2China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, 100871 Beijing, China

Abstract. Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China's agricultural production and food security. And surface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine the status of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusses how it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we used in this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and 2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological Information Center which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30 years. A Tobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influence of climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation.

Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was 74% in the past 3 years. Econometric results revealed that climate variables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides, climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation and water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis for relevant policy making.

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Short summary
Econometric results revealed that temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. For instance, increasing temperature by 0.5 °C will reduce the supply reliability of surface water irrigation by 1.1 %. When precipitation increases by 10 %, the supply reliability can be increased by 4.6 %. Besides, climate influence differs by seasons.
Econometric results revealed that temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability...
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