Articles | Volume 382
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-457-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-457-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Pre-conference publication
| 
22 Apr 2020
Pre-conference publication |
| 22 Apr 2020
| 22 Apr 2020
Blending measurements and numerical models: a novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction with uncertainty quantification
Laura Gazzola
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
University of Padova, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Padova, Italy
Massimiliano Ferronato
University of Padova, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Padova, Italy
Matteo Frigo
University of Padova, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Padova, Italy
Pietro Teatini
University of Padova, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Padova, Italy
Claudia Zoccarato
University of Padova, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Padova, Italy
Anna Antonia Irene Corradi
Eni S.p.A., Milan, Italy
Maria Carolina Dacome
Eni S.p.A., Milan, Italy
Ernesto Della Rossa
Eni S.p.A., Milan, Italy
Michela De Simoni
Eni S.p.A., Milan, Italy
Stefano Mantica
Eni S.p.A., Milan, Italy
Related authors
Massimiliano Ferronato, Matteo Frigo, Laura Gazzola, Pietro Teatini, and Claudia Zoccarato
Proc. IAHS, 382, 83–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-83-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-83-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The regular monitoring of radioactive marker positions along a vertical borehole can provide in-situ measurements of deep rock compaction. Developed in the ‘70s, in recent years the effectiveness of this technology has been often debated. The present communication analyses the state of the art of the radioactive marker technique and provides a critical review on the role that these measurements might play in the future evolution of land subsidence monitoring and modelling.
Matteo Frigo, Massimiliano Ferronato, Laura Gazzola, Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimo Antonelli, Anna Antonia Irene Corradi, Maria Carolina Dacome, Michela De Simoni, and Stefano Mantica
Proc. IAHS, 382, 449–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-449-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The numerical prediction of land subsidence above producing reservoirs can be affected by a number of uncertainties due to several factors. In this work, we use a Bayesian approach to reduce the initial uncertainties about the mechanical parameters in order to improve the reliability of land subsidence predictions.
The numerical results obtained in an experiment on a real-world gas field confirms that is a valuable and effective approach.
Huijun Li, Lin Zhu, Gaoxuan Guo, Yan Zhang, Zhenxue Dai, Xiaojuan Li, Linzhen Chang, and Pietro Teatini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 823–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a method that integrates fuzzy set theory and a weighted Bayesian model to evaluate the hazard probability of land subsidence based on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technology. The proposed model can represent the uncertainty and ambiguity in the evaluation process, and results can be compared to traditional qualitative methods.
Claudia Zoccarato, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, Pietro Teatini, and Jonathan G. Bridgeman
Proc. IAHS, 382, 565–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-565-2020, 2020
Roberto Tomás, José Luis Pastor, Marta Béjar-Pizarro, Roberta Bonì, Pablo Ezquerro, José Antonio Fernández-Merodo, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Gerardo Herrera, Claudia Meisina, Pietro Teatini, Francesco Zucca, Claudia Zoccarato, and Andrea Franceschini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 353–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-353-2020, 2020
Pietro Teatini, Cristina Da Lio, Luigi Tosi, Alessandro Bergamasco, Stefano Pasqual, Paolo Simonini, Veronica Girardi, Paolo Zorzan, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimiliano Ferronato, Marcella Roner, Marco Marani, Andrea D'Alpaos, Simonetta Cola, and Giuseppe Zambon
Proc. IAHS, 382, 345–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-345-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An in-situ loading test was carried out in the Lazzaretto Nuovo salt-marsh in the Venice Lagoon, Italy. The test was aimed at characterizing the geotechnical properties of soils forming the marsh sedimentary body deposits. In fact porosity and compressibility are of paramount importance to quantify consolidation versus accretion and relative sea level rise. The fate of coastal marshlands in the next future will strongly depend of these processes.
Roberta Bonì, Claudia Meisina, Pietro Teatini, Francesco Zucca, Claudia Zoccarato, Andrea Franceschini, Pablo Ezquerro, Marta Béjar-Pizarro, José A. Fernández-Merodo, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, José L. Pastor, Roberto Tomás, and Gerardo Herrera
Proc. IAHS, 382, 409–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-409-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of the integrated use of A-DInSAR data and 3D groundwater flow and geomechanical models to capture and assess aquifer dynamics is performed. The approach has been applied to investigate the response during and after pumping of a portion of the Madrid aquifer. The short time delay (about one month) between the groundwater pumping and the system response (land displacements) are likely due to a minor role played by the clayey layers.
Massimiliano Ferronato, Matteo Frigo, Laura Gazzola, Pietro Teatini, and Claudia Zoccarato
Proc. IAHS, 382, 83–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-83-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-83-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The regular monitoring of radioactive marker positions along a vertical borehole can provide in-situ measurements of deep rock compaction. Developed in the ‘70s, in recent years the effectiveness of this technology has been often debated. The present communication analyses the state of the art of the radioactive marker technique and provides a critical review on the role that these measurements might play in the future evolution of land subsidence monitoring and modelling.
Luigi Bruno, Bruno Campo, Bianca Costagli, Esther Stouthamer, Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, and Alessandro Amorosi
Proc. IAHS, 382, 285–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of land subsidence could be devastating on heavily settled coastal plains. In a scenario of sea-level rise, high costs are expected to protect coastal cities and touristic hotspots and to keep drained reclaimed lands. In this work, we calculated subsidence rates (SR) in the Po coastal plain, over the last 5.6 and 120 thousand years, providing information about land movements before human intervention became the main driver of subsidence, through water and gas withdrawal.
Luigi Tosi, Cristina Da Lio, Sandra Donnici, Tazio Strozzi, and Pietro Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 689–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-689-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-689-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Venice coastland forms the major low-lying area in Italy and encompasses a variety of environments, such as farmlands, estuaries, deltas, lagoons and urbanized areas. Since most of the territory lies at a ground elevation below or slightly above the mean sea-level, also a few mm/yr of land subsidence can seriously impacts on the coastal system. In this study, we present an analysis of the vulnerability to relative sea-level rise (RSLR) considering an uneven land subsidence distribution.
Matteo Frigo, Massimiliano Ferronato, Laura Gazzola, Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimo Antonelli, Anna Antonia Irene Corradi, Maria Carolina Dacome, Michela De Simoni, and Stefano Mantica
Proc. IAHS, 382, 449–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-449-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The numerical prediction of land subsidence above producing reservoirs can be affected by a number of uncertainties due to several factors. In this work, we use a Bayesian approach to reduce the initial uncertainties about the mechanical parameters in order to improve the reliability of land subsidence predictions.
The numerical results obtained in an experiment on a real-world gas field confirms that is a valuable and effective approach.
Giovanni Isotton, Pietro Teatini, Raffaele Stefanelli, Massimiliano Ferronato, Carlo Janna, Matteo Cerri, and Timur Gukov
Proc. IAHS, 382, 475–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-475-2020, 2020
Fabrizio Gemelli, Anna Corradi, Giorgio Volonté, Stefano Mantica, and Michela De Simoni
Proc. IAHS, 382, 463–467, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-463-2020, 2020
Mariano Cerca, Dora Carreón-Freyre, and Pietro Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 382, 433–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-433-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work reports results of experiments made in analogue materials reproducing the occurrence and propagation of fractures associated with land subsidence driven by groundwater pumping. We compare the physical experimental model results with a numerical model that tests the development of stresses above a bedrock ridge that forms the base of an aquifer.
Yueting Li, Matteo Frigo, Yan Zhang, Lin Zhu, Massimiliano Ferronato, Carlo Janna, Xulong Gong, Jun Yu, Pietro Teatini, and Shujun Ye
Proc. IAHS, 382, 511–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-511-2020, 2020
Pietro Teatini, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimiliano Ferronato, Andrea Franceschini, Matteo Frigo, Carlo Janna, and Giovanni Isotton
Proc. IAHS, 382, 539–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-539-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-539-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A critical issue concerning geomechanical safety for underground gas storage in compartmentalized reservoirs is fault reactivation. An in-depth modelling investigation was carried out for the typical UGS geological setting and operations in the Netherlands. The specific goals of the study are explaining the mechanisms responsible for seismic events unexpectedly recorded during UGS phases and understanding which are the critical factors that increase the probability of fault reactivation.
Luigi Tosi, Cristina Da Lio, Pietro Teatini, Antonio Menghini, and Andrea Viezzoli
Proc. IAHS, 379, 387–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-387-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have depicted the continental and marine surficial water–groundwater interactions in a large portion of the coastland encompassing the southern Venice lagoon and the northern Po river delta. The saltwater-fresh water transition zone is very irregularly-shaped and mainly depends on the morphologic setting and the subsoil architecture. An over-consolidated Pleistocene clay layer and buried Holocene sandy paleo-channels and paleo-ridge systems controlled the
saltwater-fresh water exchanges.
Pietro Teatini, Giovanni Isotton, Stefano Nardean, Massimiliano Ferronato, Annamaria Mazzia, Cristina Da Lio, Luca Zaggia, Debora Bellafiore, Massimo Zecchin, Luca Baradello, Francisco Cellone, Fabiana Corami, Andrea Gambaro, Giovanni Libralato, Elisa Morabito, Annamaria Volpi Ghirardini, Riccardo Broglia, Stefano Zaghi, and Luigi Tosi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5627–5646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5627-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5627-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of digging a navigable canal on the hydrogeological system underlying a coastal lagoon. The research has been promoted by the Venice Water Authority, which is investigating different possibilities to avoid the passage of large cruise ships through the historic center of Venice, Italy. Numerical simulations supported by a proper hydrogeological characterization show that the exchange of water and contaminants from the subsurface and surface systems will be significant.
Ahmad Ali Behroozmand, Pietro Teatini, Jesper Bjergsted Pedersen, Esben Auken, Omar Tosatto, and Anders Vest Christiansen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1527–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1527-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1527-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the EU project IMPROWARE, our goal was to investigate a Mediterranean coastal aquifer in Egypt and develop scenarios for artificial aquifer remediation and recharge. The results of an extensive hydrogeophysical investigation were successfully used as an input in regional and local hydrological models to understand the hydrological evolution of the area. The research outcomes clearly highlight the effectiveness of using advanced geophysical and modeling methodologies.
Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Zhenxue Dai, Gaoxuan Guo, and Pietro Teatini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 721–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a method to characterize the distribution and variance of the hydraulic conductivity k in a multiple-zone alluvial fan by fusing multiple-source data. Consistently with the scales of the sedimentary transport energy, the k variance of the various facies decreases from the upper to the lower portion along the flow direction. The 3-D distribution of k is consistent with that of the facies. The potentialities of the proposed approach are tested on the Chaobai River megafan, China.
R. Miandro, C. Dacome, A. Mosconi, and G. Roncari
Proc. IAHS, 372, 323–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-323-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-323-2015, 2015
C. Zoccarato, D. Baù, F. Bottazzi, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, S. Mantica, and P. Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 372, 351–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-351-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-351-2015, 2015
A. Franceschini, P. Teatini, C. Janna, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, S. Ye, and D. Carreón-Freyre
Proc. IAHS, 372, 63–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-63-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The stress variation induced by overdraft of aquifers in sedimentary basins may cause ground rupture in the form of activation of pre-existing faults or earth fissure generation. The process is severely threatening many areas in China and Mexico. Ruptures yield discontinuity in the displacement and stress fields that classic finite element (FE) models cannot address. We proved how Lagrangian approach provides more stable solutions than Penalty approach.
M. C. Dacome, R. Miandro, M. Vettorel, and G. Roncari
Proc. IAHS, 372, 379–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-379-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
ENI monitoring plan to measure and monitor the subsidence process, during field production and also after the field closure, is intended to support a sustainable field development and an acceptable exploitation programme in which the actual risk connected with the field production is evaluated in advance, shared and agreed among all the involved subjects: oil company, stakeholders and local community (with interests in the affected area) .
L. Tosi, T. Strozzi, C. Da Lio, and P. Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 372, 199–205, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-199-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Eighty regular TerraSAR-X acquisitions over the 2008-2011 period significantly improve the subsidence monitoring at the Venice coastland. Settlements of 30-35 mm/yr have been detected at the three lagoon inlets in correspondence of the MoSE works. The Venice and Chioggia historical centers show local sinking bowls up to 10 mm/yr connected with the construction of new large buildings or restoration works. In the city of Venice, the mean subsidence of 1.1±1.0 mm/yr confirms its general stability.
S. Ye, Y. Wang, J. Wu, P. Teatini, J. Yu, X. Gong, and G. Wang
Proc. IAHS, 372, 249–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-249-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-249-2015, 2015
S. Ye, Y. Luo, J. Wu, P. Teatini, H. Wang, and X. Jiao
Proc. IAHS, 372, 443–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-443-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-443-2015, 2015
G. Isotton, M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati, and P. Teatini
Proc. IAHS, 372, 519–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-519-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-372-519-2015, 2015
L. Tosi, E. E. Kruse, F. Braga, E. S. Carol, S. C. Carretero, J. L. Pousa, F. Rizzetto, and P. Teatini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 523–534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-523-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-523-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Baù, D., Ferronato, M., Gambolati, G., and Teatini, P.: Basin-scale
compressibility of the Northern Adriatic by the radioactive marker
technique, Geotechnique, 52, 605–616, 2002. a
Baù, D., Alzraiee, A., Zoccarato, C., Gambolati, G., Ferronato, M.,
Bottazzi, F., Mantica, S., and Teatini, P.: Testing a data assimilation
approach to reduce geomechanical uncertainties in modelling land subsidence,
Environmental Geotechnics, 3, 386–396, https://doi.org/10.1680/envgeo.15.00005, 2016. a, b
Chen, Y. and Oliver, D.: Levenberg-Marquardt forms of the iterative ensemble
smoother for efficient hystory matching and uncertainty quantification,
Computat. Geosci., 17, 689–703, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-013-9351-5,
2013. a
De Souza Neto, E., Peric, D., and Owen, D.: Computational methods for
plasticity, theory and application, Wiley, UK, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470694626, 814 pp., 2008. a
Evensen, G.: The Ensemble Kalman Filer:theoretical formulation and pratical
implementation, Ocean Dynam., 53, 343–367,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9, 2003. a
Ferronato, M., Gambolati, G., Janna, C., and Teatini, P.: Geomechanical issues
of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration in exploited gas fields, Energ. Convers. Manage., 51, 1918–1928, 2010. a
Ferronato, M., Castelletto, N., Gambolati, G., Janna, C., and Teatini, P.:
II cycle compressibility from satellite measurements, Geotechnique, 63,
479–486, 2013. a
Gazzola, L., Ferronato, M., Frigo, M., Janna, C., Teatini, P., Zoccarato, C.,
Antonelli, M., Corradi, A., Dacome, M., and Mantica, S.: Uncertainty
quantification and reduction through Data Assimilation approaches for the
geomechanical modeling of hydrocarbon reservoirs, in: Proceedings of the
53rd US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium ARMA, 23–26, 2019. a, b, c
Hendricks Franssen, H. J. and Kinzelbach, W.: Real-time groundwater flow modeling with the Ensemble Kalman Filter: Joint estimation of states and parameters and the filter inbreeding problem, Water Resour. Res., 44, W09408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006505, 2008. a
Nepveu, M., Kroon, I., and Fokker, P.: Hoisting a Red Flag: An early
Warning System for Exceeding Subsidence Limits, Math. Geosci.,
42, 187–198, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-009-9252-2, 2010. a
Nguyen, S. K., Volontè, G., Musso, G., Brignoli, M., Gemelli, F., and
Mantica, S.: Implementation of an elasto-viscoplastic constitutive law in
Abaqus/Standard for an improved characterization of rock materials,
Proceedings of the 51st U.S. Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium,
ARMA–2017–1043, 2017. a
Oliver, D. S. and Alfonzo, M.: Calibration of imperfect models to biased
observations, Computat. Geosci., 22, 145–161,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-017-9678-4, 2018. a
Spiezia, N., Ferronato, M., Janna, C., and Teatini, P.: A two-invariant
pseudoelastic model for reservoir compaction, International Journal of
Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics, 41, 1870–1893,
https://doi.org/10.1002/nag.2704, 2017. a
Tarantola, A.: Inverse Problem Theory and Methods for Model Parameter
Estimation, Siam, Paris, ix +339, 2005. a
Teatini, P., Ferronato, M., Gambolati, G., Baù, D., and Putti, M.: Anthropogenic Venice uplift by seawater pumping into a heterogeneous aquifer system, Water Resour. Res., 46, W11547, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009161, 2010. a
Zoccarato, C., Baù, D., Ferronato, M., Gambolati, G., Alzraiee, A., and Teatini, P.: Data assimilation of surface displacements to improve geomechanical parameters of gas storage reservoirs, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 121, 1441–1461, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012090, 2016. a, b
Zoccarato, C., Ferronato, M., and Teatini, P.: Formation compaction vs land
subsidence to constrain rock compressibility of hydrocarbon reservoirs,
Geomechanics for Energy and the Environment, 13, 14–24,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gete.2017.12.002, 2018. a
