More than two hundred gas fields under the Dutch soil have been, or are currently being exploited. Here, we discuss some of the specific difficulties of predicting and monitoring subsidence caused by such smaller fields. We keep in mind the purpose of regulation, which is to assure a balance of technical control, and establishing reliability and perception of control on the effects of mining activities. The latter are expressed by realistic uncertainties on any prediction given.

Gas production from the Groningen field in the Netherlands is resulting in increasing amounts of surface subsidence and induced seismicity. Accurate prediction of the future development of both is important but difficult as proven by the historical track record. The paper describes the development of subsidence and seismicity over time and the history of their predictions. A number of important learnings are extracted.